The price of the futures contract can deviate from the underlying price of bitcoin on spot markets, which can vary based on sentiment. But in the end, at expiration of the contract, the contract MUST settle at the price of spot. So you need to watch the main spot market price movements because the futures contracts will track the movements underlying (sometimes leading, sometimes lagging, sometimes simultaneously). There are three Chinese exchanges worth following: OKCoin, Houbi, and BTCC; there are two Western exchanges worth following: Bitfinex and Bitstamp. Other exchanges that are currently less important but still worth keeping an eye on are: ItBit, Coinbase, OKCoin USD, BTC-e, and Kraken (which has the largest BTC/EUR orderbook as of December 2015).
JUNK BONDS. “Junk Bonds” generally offer a higher current yield than that available for higher-grade issues. However, lower-rated securities involve higher risks, in that they are especially subject to adverse changes in general economic conditions and in the industries in which the issuers are engaged, to changes in the financial condition of the issuers and to price fluctuations in response to changes in interest rates. During periods of economic downturn or rising interest rates, highly leveraged issuers may experience financial stress that could adversely affect their ability to make payments of interest and principal and increase the possibility of default. In addition, the market for lower-rated debt securities has expanded rapidly in recent years, and its growth paralleled a long economic expansion. At times in recent years, the prices of many lower-rated debt securities declined substantially, reflecting an expectation that many issuers of such securities might experience financial difficulties. As a result, the yields on lower-rated debt securities rose dramatically, but the higher yields did not reflect the value of the income stream that holders of such securities expected. Rather, the risk that holders of such securities could lose a substantial portion of their value as a result of the issuers’ financial restructuring or default. There can be no assurance that such declines will not recur. The market for lower-rated debt issues generally is thinner and less active than that for higher quality securities, which may limit each Fund’s ability to sell such securities at fair value in response to changes in the economy or financial markets. Adverse publicity and investor perceptions, whether or not based on fundamental analysis, may also decrease the values and liquidity of lower-rated securities, especially in a thinly traded market. Changes by recognized rating services in their rating of a fixed income security may affect the value of these investments. Each Fund will not necessarily dispose of a security when its rating is reduced below the rating it had at the time of purchase. However, the Advisor will monitor the investment to determine whether continued investment in the security will assist in meeting each Fund’s investment objective.
A Precautionary Note to Purchasers of Creation Units — You should be aware of certain legal risks unique to investors purchasing Creation Units directly from the fund. Because new shares from the Fund may be issued on an ongoing basis, a “distribution” of the Fund’s shares could be occurring at any time. As a dealer, certain activities on your part could, depending on the circumstances, result in your being deemed a participant in the distribution, in a manner that could render you a statutory underwriter and subject you to the prospectus delivery and liability provisions of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). For example, you could be deemed a statutory underwriter if you purchase Creation Units from the Fund, break them down into the constituent Fund shares, and sell those shares directly to customers, or if you choose to couple the creation of a supply of new shares with an active selling effort involving solicitation of secondary market demand for shares. Whether a person is an underwriter depends upon all of the facts and circumstances pertaining to that person’s activities, and the examples mentioned here should not be considered a complete description of all the activities that could cause you to be deemed an underwriter. Dealers who are not “underwriters,” but are
A Fund may invest in one or more exchange-traded funds that invest in commodities or options, futures, or forwards with respect to commodities, and are treated as QPTPs for federal income tax purposes. As noted above, a Fund is limited to investing no more than 25% of the value of its total assets in the securities of one or more QPTPs. Although income from QPTPs is generally qualifying income, if an ETF intending to qualify as a QPTP fails to so qualify and is treated as a partnership for U.S. federal income tax purposes, a portion of its income may not be qualifying income. It is also possible that an ETF intending to qualify as a QPTP will be treated as a corporation for federal income tax purposes. In such a case, it will be potentially liable for an entity-level corporate income tax, which will adversely affect the return thereon. There can be no guarantee that any ETF will be successful in qualifying as a QPTP. In addition, there is little regulatory guidance concerning the application of the rules governing qualification as a QPTP, and it is possible that future guidance may adversely affect the qualification of ETFs as QPTPs. A Fund’s ability to pursue an investment strategy that involves investments in QPTPs may be limited by that Fund’s intention to qualify as a RIC, and may bear adversely on that Fund’s ability to so qualify.
You could imagine the spread going the other way, though. If everyone really was clamoring to short bitcoin, and if the futures offered a more convenient way to do it than the bitcoin exchanges, then you'd expect the short sellers to pay a premium to short via futures. Instead of selling a bitcoin at $18,000 today, they'd be willing to sell a synthetic bitcoin for $17,500, paying the spread to an arbitrageur who was willing to do the actual shorting for them. But the fact that the spread is mostly positive, and that bitcoin's price has been mostly going up, suggests that the demand has mostly been for synthetic long positions, not short.
The global regulatory landscape for bitcoin and other digital assets has been inconsistent and continues to evolve. Some countries have taken an accommodating approach to the regulation of digital assets while others have banned their use. There are various accommodative approaches a country may take. Sweden and Australia treat bitcoin as a currency, while Canada and Taiwan have labeled bitcoin as a digital or virtual currency, distinct from fiat currency. Norway categorizes bitcoin as a form of virtual asset or commodity. The United Kingdom treats bitcoin as private money and determined that the value added tax will not apply to bitcoin sales, but it can be charged on the commission instead. In April 2017, legislation took effect in Japan that treats bitcoin and other digital assets as included in the definition of currency. In July 2016, the European Commission released a draft directive that proposed applying counter-terrorism and anti-money laundering regulations to virtual currencies, and, in September 2016, the European Banking authority advised the European Commission to institute new regulation specific to virtual currencies, with amendments to existing regulation as a stopgap measure. Regulatory bodies in some countries such as India and Switzerland have declined to exercise regulatory authority when afforded the opportunity.
Assume it is January 3, 2015. Bob and Ann both want to trade at Bitcoin Futures Exchange (BFE). BFE offers 3 different contracts: one expiring and settling on Friday January 9 ('weekly'), another expiring Friday January 16th ('biweekly'), and finally one expiring in March 27 ('quarterly'). Each contract is worth 1 bitcoin notionally. BFE has a policy that traders have to put 20% of margin down to enter a trade, so Bob and Ann deposit 0.2btc to their BFE accounts as they only want to trade 1 contract.
The tables below shows performance examples of an Ultra and UltraShort ProShares Fund that have investment objective to correspond to two times (2x) and two times the inverse (-2x) of, respectively, the daily performance of an index. In the charts below, areas shaded lighter represent those scenarios where a Fund will return the same or outperform (i.e., return more than) the index performance times the stated multiple in the Fund’s investment objective; conversely areas shaded darker represent those scenarios where the Fund will underperform (i.e., return less than) the index performance times the stated multiple in the Fund’s investment objective.
and the FTSE Developed Europe Index (the “Indices”) (ii) the figure at which an Index is said to stand at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise, or (iii) the suitability of the Index for the purpose to which it is being put in connection with the ProShares Ultra, Short and UltraShort FTSE China 50 and Ultra and UltraShort FTSE Developed Europe. None of the Licensor Parties have provided or will provide any financial or investment advice or recommendation in relation to the Index to ProShares or its clients. The Index is calculated by FTSE or its agent. None of the Licensor Parties shall be (a) liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index and (b) under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein.
A Parent Fund’s recognition of any subpart F income from an investment in its Subsidiary will increase the Fund’s tax basis in such subsidiary. Distributions by a Subsidiary to a Parent Fund, including in redemption of its Subsidiary’s shares, will be tax free, to the extent of its Subsidiary’s previously undistributed subpart F income, and will correspondingly reduce the Fund’s tax basis in its Subsidiary, and any distributions in excess of the Fund’s tax basis in its Subsidiary will be treated as realized gain. Any losses with respect to the Fund’s shares of its Subsidiary will not be currently recognized. Subpart F income is generally treated as ordinary income, regardless of the character of a Subsidiary’s underlying income.